Inflation of May: What To Expect From INDEC Statistics?

EL INTRANSIGENTE – The agency will disclose the official data at 16:00. Private consultants make their own estimates.

The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will release the consumer price index (CPI) for May this afternoon. Private consultants estimate that inflation was below 2% last month. According to the latest official data, the April price rise was 1.5%, the lowest level in the last four years. The accumulated increase during the first quarter was 9.4%.

In the last Market Expectations Survey (REM), the Central Bank indicated that retail prices increased by an average of 1.7% in May. If this forecast is confirmed, Argentina would achieve its second consecutive month below 2%. It should be noted that this decrease would occur in a context of recession, falling consumption and strong monetary issuance to finance the expenses associated with the coronavirus pandemic.

The consultancy firm Analytica projected that the inflationary index grew 2.2% last month, while for LCG the variation was 1.8%. Seido, for his part, estimated that the jump was 1.6% and that there was an acceleration in the second fortnight. For this reason, the firm specialized in economics considers that in June a greater increase will be observed than that registered in the last months of quarantine.

The director of public policies at the Libertad y Progreso foundation, Manuel Solanet, warned that “there is a certain risk that inflation will take other levels.” “It is very difficult to say when it will happen, what is certain is that it will happen, there will be a significant devaluation,” he explained. The economic planning specialist warned that until now it has not been possible to observe “the inflationary effect that could be expected” from the strong monetary issue. This is due, among other factors, to the recession and the freezing of rates and prices.

In an interview for El Intransigente, the head of Free Consumers, Héctor Polino, explained why inflation rose during the quarantine. “It is for clearly speculative reasons, there is no other explanation,” he said. “The price of electricity services, drinking water, natural gas, fuels, tolls is frozen. Many workers’ wages have dropped, taxes remain the same, so there is no reason. In addition, consumption has decreased, “he described.