After the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) reports that the consumer price index registered a 2.2 percent rise in June, economists consulted by Infobae warned of a change in trend that could imply an acceleration of the inflation for the second half of the year.
Retail prices accumulate an advance of 13.6% in the first half and 42.8% in the last twelve months. However, if the July CPI exceeds 2.3 percent, the first year-on-year rise in inflation will be recorded since the government of President Alberto Fernández took office.
For Consultatio analyst Francisco Mattig, the June number of 2.2 percent inflation was surprising given that from the consultancy they expected the price rise to be 1.8 percent.
“In our opinion, it is a sign of what is to come in the second semester, where we see records that can exceed 4% in the last quarter of the year, to close above 45 percent in 2020,” he said.
In this sense, he stressed that the high monetization of the deficit that they estimate will continue in the second half of the year, is the main fuel for the rise in inflation for the second half of the year.
“But we also expect the depreciation of the exchange rate to accelerate, as the seasonality of the supply of dollars begins to play against it in a context where the real exchange rate is going to lag,” said Mattig.
And he added: “The fact that the inflation of tradable goods was much higher than that of services anticipates that the rise in prices may be significant. In July, the dynamics of reserves became more complicated. Regulated prices continue to lag and, although we do not see more pressure this year, it will be an issue next year. ”
In turn, the economist and director of Eco Go, Martín Vauthier, told infobae that the factors that have been operating since mid-March to explain inflation that slowed sharply from previous levels, continue to operate. There he highlighted the freezing of rates, exchange restrictions and price controls that the Executive Branch implemented.
However, he said that it can be expected that as the months go by and restrictions are lifted, inflation levels will start to rise.
“How much inflation accelerates will depend on the result of the debt renegotiation and its impact on expectations and the demand for money. A successful negotiation would give air to the demand for money, compensating a bit for the lower precautionary demand that there would be after the restrictions were released, ”he analyzed, considering that fiscal and monetary consistency from now on will be determining factors. it rises sequentially, the Government shows a rapid convergence to the fiscal balance and a debt settlement is made, you can think of inflation below 40% for all of 2020 (Martín Vauthier)
For Vauthier, in a context of such uncertainty, it is very difficult to put together a base scenario on inflation for the coming months. However, he indicated that with respect to July, an IPC could be thought that would show values above those registered in June, but below what was seen in the first quarter.
“For the rest of the year, it will depend on the scenario. If the quarantine is lifted sequentially, the government shows a rapid convergence to the fiscal balance and a debt settlement is made, you can think of inflation below 40% for all of 2020, “he stressed.
Instead, he pointed out that eventually if those factors do not occur, that is to say that the uncertainty regarding the debt is not cleared and there are no fiscal and monetary signals, “inflation can close the year at 45% or higher.” Retail prices accumulate an advance of 13.6% in the first semester and 42.8% in the last twelve months. (Télam) Retail prices accumulate an advance of 13.6% in the first semester and 42.8% in the last twelve months. (Télam)
According to Damián Di Pace, head of the consulting firm Focus Market, there has been an evolution of the exchange rate in recent months that is still pending, which is reflected in the prices of the economy. Inflation will greatly depend on how the Central Bank reacts to This huge monetary issue in the market, especially in categories that can resume the level of sales and have an impact on prices in the third and fourth quarters of the year (Damián Di Pace)
“What is expected is that in July there will be an inflationary acceleration with respect to June because there will even be a greater circulation of money on the street. The last two installments of the Emergency Family Income of $ 10,000 that Anses pays were given in June, the Christmas bonus was paid in July and there will be a bigger price pressure then, without any doubt, “he considered.
Regarding the second semester, he evaluated that “inflation will greatly depend on how the Central Bank reacts to this enormous monetary issue in the market, especially in categories that can resume the level of sales and have an impact on prices in third and fourth quarter of the year ”.
Finally, the economist Aldo Abram emphasized that the low price indices that were registered in the second quarter have to do with the fact that there is a reality distorted by the quarantine, beyond the opinion that the Indec is releasing prices well.
“Clearly, as the quarantine is left behind and the level of activity is normalizing, we will begin to see that prices are going to be higher. For the second semester we should see that inflation begins to grow. I estimate around 3 percent in July and from there it will go up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates of 5 percent or more. That would lead us to an inflation level in 2020 of 45% ”, he concluded.