Economist specialized in Economic Development, Strategic Marketing and International Markets. Professor at the University of Belgrano. Member of the Liberal Network of Latin America (RELIAL) and Member of the Institute of Ethics and Political Economy of the National Academy of Moral and Political Sciences.
IPROFESIONAL – The gap between the savings dollar and the informal or also call “blue” dollar will continue to the extent that demand is restricted and a reference market is not formed in the Electronic Payment Market (MEP) segment with interventions from the Central Bank and other public organizations, as While the fall in Central Bank reserves will also persist since the implementation of the new measures (super stocks) accumulate a loss of US $ 295 million.
Regarding the price of the blue dollar, the Scalabrini Ortiz Center for Economic and Social Studies (CESO) warns that as the supply is more restricted, “it is logical that its price increases.” And he stresses that the demand for the informal ticket will not only continue, but will “probably continue to grow.”
This was stated by CESO, in its latest report, in which it warned about the limited scope of the latest restrictive measures taken in the exchange market, which raised the price of the saving dollar to more from $ 130.
Although this measure helped to reduce the gap between the dollar that can be accessed in the Single Free Exchange Market (MULC) and the blue, which also reduced the incentive to buy operations in a segment to sell in the other (also know as “smash potato”), the CESO warned that “the gap will continue and, with it, the loss of reserves”.
Blue dollar: expert forecast
This medium consulted other leading economists, and the general coincidence is that the “blue is like the lottery”, since being such an atomized and small square, its value can go “anywhere”. According to the CESO, in what There are no immediate positive effects of the “super stocks” on the dollar.
Beyond that, several analysts were encouraged to estimate a price for the end of the year.
The first one who kicked the board a few days ago and was encouraged to publicly throw a forecast was Diego Giacomini, who affirmed that in Argentina the dollar “has no ceiling” and that the parallel will reach 200 pesos “much faster than people think ”.
His justification was that “there are many pesos artificially locked up” in the banking system, and that when they leave there they will go towards the dollar and, therefore, their price will rise.
On the side of Roberto Geretto, economist of the wholesale bank CMF), his estimates are more moderate and he foresees that the blue will follow the projected inflation until the end of the year, “from the current $ 140 it would close 2020 at levels of $ 162”, he summarizes iProfessional.
It even affirms that if the monetary and fiscal variables are normalized within a macroeconomic program that provides confidence, “the blue should lose against inflation in the medium term, since the current $ 140 is equivalent to a higher real exchange rate. that, inclusive, the maximum of 2002″.
In the same vein, the economist Andrés Méndez from AMF Economía also affirms that, if the reserves remain stable, “I could imagine that this theoretical dollar increases to 3% per month, that is, that we would be at $ 150 by the end of the year. The blue would have to be around there, it seems little with current values, but it would be an increase of more than 100% in the year. ”
The current price of the blue dollar is the highest in real terms taking into account the last 15 years. The current price of the blue dollar is the highest in real terms taking into account the last 15 years.
Meanwhile, Salvador Di Stefano, an analyst linked to the agricultural sector, sees the blue closer to $ 180 by the end of the year. “I think we are going to a gap of 100% or more,” he tells iProfesional, as it happened at the worst moment of the stocks during Kirchnerism.
Likewise, the economist Agustín Etchebarne does not dare to risk a value immediately, but “I am encouraged to say that blue will calmly exceed 200 pesos next year”. This, in his opinion, would also accelerate inflation, which projects it at 60% by 2021.