What will happen to the exchange rate and demand for the blue dollar

IPROFESIONAL – The economist Aldo Abram considered this Tuesday that the latest measures to reduce exchange rate volatility “will bring a momentary tranquility and the markets will work much better.”

But he warned that the government “is forcing people to deny their assets” by buying dollars in the informal market (dollar blue).

“Removing distortions from absurd restrictive measures improves the situation, but the level of credibility is not going to be the same as it was at the time prior to the moment of restrictions,” said the economist.

And he added: “to the extent that the peso loses purchasing power, it is obvious that people are going to continue to protect themselves with the dollar, which is a horror, because they are forcing these people to deny their assets.” “The serious thing is that our Government has been all the time encouraging people to informalize their assets, which is on the verge of crime,” he warned.

However, Abram commented to the NA agency that “the markets are going to work much better” with the official decision to reduce to three days the “parking” to carry out dollar operations “counted with liquid” and other negotiable securities, and return to Authorize the operations of non-residents in that market The stocks are forcing people to buy blue dollars The stocks are forcing people to buy blue dollars.

An “unsustainable” stocks

According to the economist, the stocks “are unsustainable over time. The ideal would have been to remove all the restrictions so that the banks can offer people a kind of doubled market ”.

Abram also considered that the new measures “are nothing more than to roll back part of the restrictions that the Central Bank and the National Securities Commission had put in recent months, which were absurd, because the only thing they achieved was to reduce income in the exchange market ”.

“It is that nobody is going to enter a market from where you cannot leave. So, with more demand than supply, prices will tend to rise ”, he emphasized. In his opinion, “all the measures related to the stocks, the only thing they have done is that people have ended up buying dollars in the blue market, fundamentally because they are fleeing the peso.”

A blue dollar at $300?

“In 2021, the price of the market dollar will start with 3,” said Diego Giacomini, from the consultancy firm Economía y Regiones, on the behavior of the market dollar, in reference to blue, for next year.

This Friday, the blue dollar reached a historical record, as has been happening day after day since the application of the super stocks to foreign exchange operations in the official market. Thus, the greenback was sold in the financial caves at a maximum that was around 178 pesos.

However, it will not be its maximum value, much less, since you will consult economics that place the price of the blue dollar at $ 200 in a short-term period. “It will quickly reach a level with a floor of $ 200,” Giacomini highlighted in the “Economy & Regions” report.

And not only that: “It will continue to rise because an increasingly bankrupt Central Bank is a sure promise of more devaluation and more inflation,” added Giacomini.

“The balance of the BCRA shows that the upward trend of the dollar will not only continue, but will steepen significantly,” said the report by the Giacomini consultancy, and projected: “The market dollar (the free stock) will start with ‘2 ‘faster than people think ”.

Taking the close of the parallel market on Friday ($ 178), for the price to reach $ 200 it would have to increase 12%, less than the 27.69% that rose since the announcement of the exchange restrictions on September 15.

Specifically, Giacomini maintains that the price of the dollar “has no ceiling” as long as the Central Bank does not have the necessary reserves to sustain it. Consequently, he predicted that “in 2021, the market price of the dollar will start with ‘3’, then with ‘4’, then with ‘5’ and who knows how far it goes. It has no roof ”.