EL LIBERAL – The expected inflation for next year will reach an average of 50%, almost 20 points above that forecast by the national government in the 2021 Budget at the same time as the expected evolution of the official exchange rate that closed the Last Friday at $ 88.25, it would be at an average of $ 130 and economic activity will not reach the levels it had in 2019, according to different economists consulted by EL LIBERAL and the consulting firm Focus Economics.
In the first place on the expected inflation for 2021, the economist Orlando Ferreres from the consulting firm OJF y Asociados told EL LIBERAL that “we calculate 51% for next year and a real salary that will give approximately the same as inflation falls 0,7% “.
At his turn, the economist Aldo Abram, director of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, pointed out that “we believe that inflation will probably be higher next year than this year. At least it will be around 50% because this year people tended to demand a lot of pesos and that allowed the BCRA to issue a lot and the peso to depreciate relatively little, less than it should, so as demand now falls of pesos and beyond the seasonality of increase at the end of the year, that demand will continue to fall next year and the BCRA will continue issuing. In addition, all the price controls so far are unsustainable over time and they will have to make them more flexible and that was also helping to a certain extent that the CPI did not reflect all the depreciation of the currency, so next year we see an inflation of around 50%, at least ”.
In turn, the survey carried out by Focus Economics, revealed that the consensus of consultants expect 50% inflation in 2021. But, some such as Empiria Consultores foresees an inflation of 68.8%, Econometric 60.1%. In turn, Fiel, the foundation whose chief economist is Daniel Artana, estimates it at 59.2%.
As for those with a more optimistic view, the group is led by Fitch Solutions, which points to a level of inflation similar to that of this year (37%), while Oxford Economics, Abeceb and Kiel Institute average 40% and C&T Asesores, the consulting firm headed by economist Camilo Tiscornia, has risen to 41.8%.
Another of the questions made to the economists was about the expected exchange rate for the coming year.
In this sense, for Orlando Ferreres, “we calculate the official exchange rate at $145 per dollar – to December 2021- and the CCL is 70% higher, that is, the gap is decreasing, but not very fast.”
For his part, Aldo Abram, pointed out that “for the exchange rate (TC) we expect the government to maintain this strategy with the official TC, not to raise it too strongly because that tends to be reflected quickly in gondola prices and the closer we get The less the elections will be the government’s preference for doing something like this. It is probable that now we see devaluation levels of the official dollar of 3% and a bit more, but in the second quarter we will see that they try again to have devaluation levels of less than 3% because that way the prices in the gondolas will rise less and that is good for elections ”.
He added that ‘after the elections the same will happen as in 2013: The stocks will arrive very weakened and with very few reserves, they will have to make a rapid increase and the TC will grow more than 30% as at that time. The official TC as of December 2021 that we expect is $125 ”.
For its part, the forecasts around the dollar surveyed by Focus Economics also show very open “tips”, because although the average price for the end of the year is $ 130, the forecasts start from $ 106 to $ 161, which marks the uncertainty that prevails with respect to this variable.
For Quantum Finance, it will be located at $ 158 and a devaluation of 77%, and for FIEL, at $ 149 with a devaluation of 67%. Barclays Capital and the investment bank JP Morgan consider a price of $ 145/146 and an exchange rate adjustment that would be around 63%. The consulting firm Seido forecasts a dollar at $ 107, while C&T Asesores at $ 110. Oxford Economics defines a dollar of $ 113.3 and Fitch of $ 115.3, which equates to a parity adjustment of almost 30%.