Argentina’s trade balance would have reached a surplus of $1,230 million in November

Bachelor of Economics (UBA). Economic Analyst of Libertad y Progreso.

INFOBAE – (Reuters) – The Argentine Commercial Exchange (ICA) reported a positive balance of 1.23 billion dollars in November, sustained mainly by an advance in commodity prices, reflected the average of a Reuters poll.

Estimates between eight local and foreign analysts also showed a median with a surplus of 1,059 million dollars for the trade balance for the penultimate month of 2020.

The positive ICA result in November was “driven by a recovery in commodity prices, the economic recovery of our main trading partners and the domestic agro-export sector,” said Natalia Motyl, economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.

The great disparity of projections of the surveyed analysts ranged from a minimum and maximum positive trade balance of $ 670 million and $ 1,891 million, respectively.

In November 2019, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), Argentina’s trade balance registered a surplus of 2.484 billion dollars.

Analysts forecast that Argentina’s trade surplus could shrink in the coming months when the economy starts to improve due to higher imports.

“The surplus is expected to shrink in the coming months as domestic demand is expected to recover, so some growth in imports is expected,” Motyl added.

INDEC, according to its publication calendar, will release the official ICA data for the eleventh month of the year on Tuesday afternoon.