Consumption: they project growth for 2021 above the rise in GDP and led by durable goods

Photo Natalia Motyl
Natalia Motyl

Bachelor of Economics (UBA). Economic Analyst of Libertad y Progreso.

INFOBAE – After a 10.6% contraction in economic activity in the first 11 months of 2020, according to Indec, the private consultants consulted by Infobae project that consumption in 2021 will increase to 8.4%, above the expected growth in GDP for this year.

In that sense, they expect durable goods to lead the recovery, which will be “weak” after the fall that was registered last year of around 10% as a result of the covid-19 pandemic and the consequent restrictions on circulation that lasted longer. 200 days.

Natalia Motyl, an economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, told Infobae that by 2021 she expects an increase of 7%, mainly driven by the food and durable goods sectors. “Everything that has to do with articles and equipment for the home and with the automotive sector, a rebound of over 10% is expected,” she stressed.

And she added: “Household appliances will also drive the recovery, although this last item depends a lot on the ease of payment and the fees offered by the banks this year. As of March, it is expected that it will start to reactivate with greater force ”.

For Camilo Tiscornia, from C&T Consultores, private consumption may grow more than GDP this year. “If the GDP will be around 6%, consumption could reach 7%,” he assured this medium. The consumption of durable goods is always a good substitute when you have pesos and do not know what to do. This has happened in other moments of Kirchenism (Camilo Tiscornia)

According to the economist, this year the wage bill will be recovered and that will allow greater consumption. Although he warned that it will be limited because it is possible that wages will grow little.

“The consumption of durable goods is always a good substitute when you have pesos and don’t know what to do. This has happened in other moments of Kirchenism. You cannot buy dollars, interest rates are not attractive and therefore durable goods are a good way to hedge against inflation, “he said. The automotive sector is expected to boost consumption in 2021 thanks to new financing plans. expects the automotive sector to boost consumption in 2021 thanks to new financing plans

Along these lines is the projection of the economists surveyed by the Latin Focus Consensus Forecast who foresee a 6% growth in consumption in 2021.

Meanwhile, from the consulting firm Orlando J. Ferreres they told Infobae that at constant prices, they expect consumption to grow 8.4% annually, after falling 12% in 2020. “Thus, consumption will show a partial recovery from the drop in last year, although it will be below the average of the last ten years, “said Rosendo Plana, economist at the consultancy.

Partial reactivation

The president of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce (CAC), Mario Grinman, affirmed that there is “a slight tendency to recovery” in consumption although there are still “sectors that are very complicated” and said that the expectation is placed on vaccination against covid-19 and the relaxation of social distancing. “We are better, there is a slight tendency to recovery,” said Grinman in dialogue with Télam, and noted that there are still “very complicated sectors, such as gastronomy.” The CAC manager also observed that the sector is “waiting for what will happen with the vaccination, it has to be as fast and massive as possible and that this allows a greater influx of public to shops and entertainment venues.” Durables improve because it is a value protection mechanism in a context of uncertainty (Abeceb Consultant)

For Damián Di Pace, director of Focus Market, the rhythm of private consumption will be dependent on two main variables. The evolution of wages with respect to inflation and the exchange rate in a year in which the Government will bet on increasing aggregate demand by improving household income, but with many limitations due to the current situation of trade and industry in a pandemic.

“Among the sectors that will be growing is the general trade and supermarkets in mass consumption, but with a lukewarm improvement compared to the fall of 2020. In the industrial sector, construction, automotive, electronics, computing, plastics and chemicals we see it upward. However, clothing, footwear and food still have a difficult year ahead of them in 2021, ”he assured.

Likewise, according to the consulting firm Abeceb, the recovery in consumption will be uneven and will imply better prospects for durable goods. “Durable goods improve because they are a value protection mechanism in a context of uncertainty, while those that are necessary improve hand in hand with the mass of informal income, although with a level well below the pre-pandemic”, stood out.

How the market is reconfigured

According to ABECEB, this year there will be a rechanneling and normalization of consumer baskets. “While we expect a gradual return to traditional shopping channels, the online channel is here to stay. The challenge for face-to-face channels to recover part of the lost share will go through both the experience with the client and the positioning of costs, “said the consultant. The Chamber of Brands and Franchises expects that around 150 new franchisors will be developed, which which is equivalent to 12% growth compared to 2020

From the Chamber of Brands and Franchises (AAMF) they told this medium that there are many business formats, adapted to the current pandemic situation, which have grown a lot.

“The ‘dark’ are an example. These are businesses that have no access to the street and that work with delivery. And the ‘corners’ are another type of business on the rise. They are mini-franchises of a brand within other businesses. There is a lot in ice cream parlors of brands that are integrated into other businesses ”, explained Ezequiel Devoto, president of AAMF.

In this sense, he stated that rebound is expected for the food sector in all formats: dietetics, butchers, dairy, supermarkets, decoration and white goods and hardware stores. Rebound is expected for the food sector in all formats: dietetics, butchers, dairy, supermarkets (DyN) Upturns are expected for the food sector in all formats: dietetics, butchers, dairy, supermarkets (DyN)

“The expectation for 2021 is quite uncertain, given the continuity of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the general consensus is that it will be a better year than 2020, since some recovery is expected, both in economic activity in general, and in the granting of franchises and licenses, and therefore also in the generation of jobs direct ”, asserted Devoto.

“According to partial results of an ongoing survey by the AAMF on what happened during 2020 in the sectors that operate with franchises, despite the closing of about 5,800 points of sale, another 3,600 new ones were opened, more adapted to the particularities of the new normal, such as low-cost models or franchises in virtual mode or of the hidden stores type, which only focus on delivery and do not have attention to the street ”, he highlighted. another 3,600 new ones, more adapted to the particularities of the new normal (Ezequiel Devoto)

From the Chamber of Brands and Franchises they expect that around 150 new franchisors will be developed, which is equivalent to a 12% growth compared to 2020.

Likewise, the opening of about 4,700 points of sale or a 13% growth is expected; but also the closure of another 1,800 stores that will not be able to adapt to the new reality

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