10 points to understand Argentine markets and economy

EL ECONOMISTA – Analysts from local consultants and brokers think about Argentine markets and the economy. Below we’ve made a 10 point summary of the reports.

1) The operators have focused their interest in the behavior of the argentine peso against the dollar, after a millionaire intervention of 385.5 million dollars during the first week of the month by the central bank to curb the weakness of the domestic currency.

2) In addition, on Tuesday the monetary policy reference rates will be reported from the agency, currently at 27.25 percent per annum, in the midst of persistent inflationary pressure. “As long as the central bank continues to monetize the external debt, it will be impossible to contain inflation,” said Libertad y Progreso.

3) Pablo Castagna, director of Portfolio Personal, said that “we expect the central bank to demonstrate authority, and make the interventions that it has to do in the market to avoid greater pressures on prices, or even moderate the possible impact of international events” .

4) He added that “this does not mean that we do not coincide with the existing free floating (exchange) scheme, we only point out that interventions in the exchange rate are another monetary policy tool that can and should be used by the entity, if necessary”.

5) “In its last monetary policy announcement, the central bank was harder, in the context of an acceleration of inflation, and stressed that it will not continue with the rate reduction until it realizes that the disinflation process has resumed. We emphasize that the scheduled increases in regulated prices continue until April, “projected the consultancy Delphos Investment.

6) “It is impossible to lower inflation to 17 percent (annual) with rate adjustments and fiscal deficit,” reported the Center for New Economy Studies (CENE) of the University of Belgrano.

7) The drought that affected the agricultural sector reduces the forecasts of Argentina, since the GDP would rise close to 2 percent in the year, reported the consultancy Ecolatina, against a projection of 3.5 percent on the part of the Government.

8) Dante Sica, director of the consultancy ABECEB, said that “there is no massive import that is affecting the levels of production” and said that “the important thing is that what leads the growth of imports are capital goods and inputs intermediate and that shows the investment process that starts to start and the dynamism of the industry. “

9) The consultancy First Capital Group said that the growth of deposits in dollars slowed down. Due to government debt placements, deposits in dollars in the ‘Public Sector’ decreased with respect to the previous month and in year-on-year terms. “If we analyze this decrease by sector, February showed a deceleration with respect to the previous month, Private sector deposits fell 3.9 percent monthly, while within the public sector, the drop was 20 percent. they decreased 9.6 percent in the month, “he added.

10) The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will report February inflation on Wednesday, where private analysts project a floor of at least 2.5 percent. * The inflation index recorded by the Statistical Institute of Workers (IET) reflected in its measurement a year-on-year inflation in February is 26.3 percent.