Impact of Alberto Fernández’s speech: what economists and businessmen said

General director en Libertad y Progreso

Economist specialized in Economic Development, Strategic Marketing and International Markets. Professor at the University of Belgrano. Member of the Liberal Network of Latin America (RELIAL) and Member of the Institute of Ethics and Political Economy of the National Academy of Moral and Political Sciences.

INFOBAE – President Alberto Fernández opened this Sunday at the beginning of the 138th period of ordinary sessions of the Congress with a strong message in which there was a call for “never again” to unsustainable indebtedness. He also announced that farmers must make “an effort” so that Argentina can get out of the recession, highlighted measures that it took in the 81 days it has taken from the Government such as lowering the rate, the moratorium on SMEs and said that the country needs to increase exports and develop the local industry. In that context, economists consulted by Infobae remarked that there is still no concrete news regarding the negotiation for debt restructuring and indicated that there is also a lack of news regarding a specific economic plan to get out of the recession and grow again. While SMEs and industrial entrepreneurs highlighted the measures announced for the productive sectors and pledged to work in line with the President’s agenda. Analysis of the political discourse of the Argentine president

Regarding the debt renegotiation process that the national government is carrying out, Fernández said that “the most important thing is that the agreement with the creditors is sustainable and it is non-negotiable” that the understanding “allows Argentina to stand up and not return fall”. He also affirmed that “an orderly resolution to the debt crisis is being sought and we are walking in that direction”.

Agustín Etchebarne, an economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, said that “unfortunately Fernández’s speech today contains all the old ideas that govern the decline of Argentina.”

“I was surprised that the President said that in 81 days the fiscal situation improved, when a primary deficit was showed in January for the first time in years. Of course, Congress celebrated when he said that they will not pay the debt with the hunger of the Argentines. I believe it’s positive, the moderate and conciliatory tone that tried to show ”, affirmed.

According to the economist, there were no big surprises in Fernandez’s first speech before the Legislative Assembly. “He reiterated the description of the calamities of Argentina, blaming them almost exclusively to the previous government, which is partially true, but he did not recognize that the problem has come before. In my opinion, it will not be able to curb inflation with the measures that have been announced so far. Price controls and attempts to suppress salary increases or talk about the damn inertia are useless, nor is the gondola law or the Soviet idea of ​​(Eduardo) Duhalde to sell products without packaging or in bulk. ”

In turn, Miguel Zielonka, of the Econviews consultancy, said that focusing on the economy there was no news. And he added that on the issue of debt, which is key, there were no details. “Alberto Fernández said they were going to make the debt renegotiation proposal in these weeks. They are looking for sustainability and they are not going to make a big fiscal effort. Nothing new under the sun, ”the economist insisted.

With regard to the possibility of falling into default, I stress: “If there is a will to reach an agreement and this is simply a staging to negotiate in better terms, we are not closer to the default. On the other hand, if they dogmatically adhere to what they say, we are closer. ”

Alberto Fernández said they were going to make the debt renegotiation proposal in these weeks. They are looking for sustainability and they are not going to make a big fiscal effort. Nothing new under the sun (Miguel Zielonka)

Along the same lines, Andrea Osorio, an economist at the Capital Foundation, said that “Alberto Fernández continued without giving too much pressure on the economic plan.” However, he acknowledged that “it is interesting that a key sector for exports, such as energy, is put on the agenda,” in reference to the project that the Executive Power will send to the Congress on hydrocarbon and mining exploitation.

“The main economic challenge today is the renegotiation of the debt, and it seems that only when that stage closes will there be more details of the current government’s economic program. The discourse is maintained that, as it stands, the debt is unsustainable, but they still do not give any details regarding the negotiations, ”said Osorio.

In another order, the General Business Confederation of the Argentine Republic (CGERA) supported this Sunday the measures announced for the productive sectors by President Alberto Fernández in the framework of the opening of the ordinary sessions of the National Congress.

In this regard, the President of CGERA, Marcelo Fernández, stressed that “the Economic and Social Council will be a very important place to contribute ideas and resume the path of industrialization of the country.” He also stressed the importance of granting “incentives to industrial parks in Argentina.”

“The fact that there have been many mentions in the speech to the needs of industrial productive policies is an advance” (José Urtubey)

For this reason, Fernández said: “SME entrepreneurs are going to work accordingly to collaborate with the agenda proposed by the President.” In addition, the President of CGERA highlighted the first measures taken by the Government during its first months of management, such as the SME Moratorium, credits for the sector granted by Banco Nación and Banco Provincia, and the decision to lower interest rates.

For his part, the businessman and leader of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA), José Urtubey considered that “the fact that there have been many mentions in the speech to the needs of industrial productive policies is an advance”.“Let’s not forget that for four years, not even the word industry was in the speeches. That industrial production and policies are linked to universities and technology centers is important. That is to understand modernity, ”he remarked.

However, he noted that debt is one of the challenges that are still pending. “I am optimistic that it can be resolved and from there I can deepen more specific productive policies. The decision to lower the reference rate of the Central Bank and to grant a moratorium on SMEs is also important, ”he concluded.