Argentina’s trade balance would have registered a surplus of 1,021 mln dollars in October

Bachelor of Economics (UBA). Economic Analyst of Libertad y Progreso.

(Reuters) – The Argentine Commercial Exchange (ICA) would have reached a positive balance of 1,021 million dollars in the tenth month of the year, due to an improvement in the prices of materials, which encouraged the exports of the South American nation, according to the average of a Reuters poll.

Estimates among five local analysts also reflected a median with a surplus of $ 825 million for the October trade balance.

The positive balance that would be observed in the ICA would be given “by a recovery in the prices of the basic products that we export and the economic recovery of our main trading partners that would explain the increase in exports”, said economist Natalia Motyl, from the Freedom and Progress Foundation.

On the other hand, the fall in imports would have been maintained in the tenth month of the year.

Another factor that helped the surplus is the reduction “in imports, explained by a fall in domestic demand,” a behavior that would continue until the beginning of next year, added Motyl.

The disparate projections of the surveyed analysts ranged from a minimum positive trade balance of $ 365 million to a maximum of $ 1,996 million.

Matías Rajnerman from the consulting firm Ecolatina estimated that “the difference between the official dollar and the rest of the (alternative) dollars generates devaluation expectations, which encourage the postponement of exports and, above all, the advancement of imports.”

She added that “despite the fact that there was no sustainable improvement in activity during the past month, purchases abroad grew, motivated by the‘ gap ’effect and declamatory fears.”

The exchange rate gap between the official dollar and the parallel dollar exceeded 140% weeks ago when the marginal value of the peso sank to 195 pesos per dollar.

In October 2019, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), the ICA showed a surplus of 1,768 million dollars, while in September 2020 it reached a positive balance of 584 million dollars.

INDEC is expected to release the official trade balance for October on Tuesday afternoon.

Report by Hernán Nessi and Jorge Otaola; Edited by Walter Bianchi

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