SURVEY-Argentina’s economic activity would have contracted 8.6% year-on-year in September

Photo Natalia Motyl
Natalia Motyl

Bachelor of Economics (UBA). Economic Analyst of Libertad y Progreso.

INFOBAE – (Reuters) – The Monthly Estimator of the Economic Activity of Argentina (EMAE) would have fallen an average year-on-year 8.6% in the ninth month of the year. Despite the reactivation of several sectors of an economy hit by a prolonged recession and the coronavirus pandemic, according to the average of a Reuters poll.

Estimates among five local analysts also showed a drop in the median of 9.0% for the September EMAE.

Economic activity “shows an improvement compared to August, thus continuing with the gradual recovery of activity after the crash in April,” said consulting firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados.

In April, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), economic activity registered the largest drop since 1993, registering a contraction of 26%, while last August the EMAE fell by 11.6% in its year-on-year measurement.

The slowdown in the fall in the EMAE “is explained by the normalization of activities in industry and construction, which reflects a certain moderation in the falls in said activities,” said Natalia Motyl, economist at Fundación Libertad y Progreso.

The great disparity in estimates among analysts ranged from a minimum drop of 5.9% to a maximum of 11.1% for economic activity in the ninth month of 2020.

“In September, a large part of the fall of the previous months was cut, and it is to be expected that during the next months pre-pandemic levels of activity can be reached and even exceeded,” said Pablo Besmedrisnik of the consulting firm Invenomica.

INDEC, according to its publication calendar, will release the official EMAE data for September on Tuesday afternoon.