Argentina’s GDP would have contracted 11.3% year-on-year in 3rd quarter 2020

Photo Natalia Motyl
Natalia Motyl

Bachelor of Economics (UBA). Economic Analyst of Libertad y Progreso.

(Reuters) – Argentina’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have fallen 11.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of the year, after registering its worst historical decline in the previous period, according to the average of a Reuters poll.

Analysts consulted agreed that the lower decline in GDP, in relation to the second quarter, is mainly due to the relaxation of the quarantine imposed by the South American country.

Estimates among 13 local and foreign analysts showed a median decline of 10.7% for GDP in the period between July and September.

The GDP data for the third quarter of the year will be “lower than in the previous quarter, which suggests that the floor that had been touched in the second quarter was left behind,” said economist Natalia Motyl, from the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.

Argentina, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), reached a historical contraction of 19.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020.

“The recovery is due to a greater relaxation of the quarantine and the gradual recovery of sectors led by industrial and construction,” added Motyl.

Since the end of March, the Argentine Government has ordered a social and mandatory isolation in order to delay the spread of the coronavirus, although over time and with the spread of the virus it has been making it more flexible to reduce the impact on the economy.

Estimates among the analysts consulted ranged from a minimum and maximum contraction of 10.3% and 15.7% for the GDP in the third quarter of 2020, respectively.

INDEC, according to its publication calendar, will report the official GDP data for the July-September period on Wednesday afternoon.