They haven’t really taken into account the climatic problem that plagues agriculture. Almost all of the core zone is affected by a severe drought and most of the rest, too. Something we haven’t seen in almost 30 years.
INFOBAE: Whoever believes the picture for the coming months in terms of balance of trade, and consequently the balance of payments, is flattering, is certainly seriously mistaken.
Without a doubt, the situation has improved due to the application of the “soybean dollar” program. As of September 5 and until the end of the month, around 13.5 million tons of soybeans would have been marketed – between fixing previous businesses and new businesses.
It is true that the exchange situation was very favorable during September. And it still is. However, such a program will soon have its consequences. Although it is fair to admit it: he went out of step. In short, it was only about “undressing a saint to dress another.”
The volume produced in the campaign is between 42 and 44 million tons.
The current drop in prices in the domestic soybean market proves it. Today the price of the available merchandise tends to be similar (perhaps lower) to the price before the program. Therefore, the level of sales by holders of this oilseed to industry and export will be clearly lower than the average of recent years for the remainder of the campaign.
It is not that production has increased. Simply, there was an increase in supply during September to the detriment of the immediate future.
The volume produced in the campaign is between 42 and 44 million tons and its estimated there are between 12 and 13 million tons of soybeans in production. Just under 30%.
And there are still about 7 months to go before the new soybean crop arrives. Furthermore, this is happening in a setting where corn planting is threatened by the terrible drought.
This is not the only problem.
Policy makers await (“desperately”) the entry of dollars for wheat exports between December of this year and February of next year. But the situation is very different from previous years. It is realistic to estimate that, due to these sales abroad, there will be a drop in the amount of dollars to be paid close to 30%. The estimated numbers at the beginning of the fine grain campaign have become obsolete.
It doesn’t seem that they have really taken into account the climatic problem that plagues agriculture. Almost all of the core zone is affected by a severe drought and most of the rest, too. Something never seen in almost 30 years.
Given the state in which they are, herbicides will be applied to a large part of the sown wheat to eliminate it in order to plant soybeans whose harvest will only take place in April of next year. It is likely that another portion will be used for late maize (of lower productivity), once the wheat already sown has been destroyed.
The worst of all is that, according to forecasts, La Niña will continue until the end of the year.
The picture is very serious. And expectations will change as soon as they become aware of what is happening.