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The day Argentina proposed to enter WWII (on the Axis side)

We still do not know enough about the relations of the military government that emerged on June 4, 1943 with the Nazi regime. Part of the problem is the lack of interest (or resources) of historians to investigate in the archives of Germany. Also the fact that few of us have knowledge of the German language.

After the war the Allies published in English a summary of the diplomatic correspondence of the Nazi regime (see here). Unfortunately it only covers until 1941. However, later the German government continued to publish these documents but in German under the title "AKTEN ZUR DEUTSCHEN AUSWÄRTIGEN POLITIK 1918-1945". You can access them at this link.

From these files (AKTEN ZUR DEUTSCHEN AUSWÄRTIGEN POLITIK 1918-1945, Band VI 1. May bis 30. September 1943, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht Gottingen, 1979) I rescued the following internal communication that Walter Schellenberg, Head of the Sicherheitsdienst (SD), the service intelligence officer of the SS (led by Himmler), sent Joachim von Ribbentropp, Minister of Foreign Affairs, about a meeting held by his agent in Buenos Aires with President Ramirez and other officials of his government at the Casa Rosada a few weeks later after the coup.

General Pedro Pablo Ramirez (alias "Palito")

Present at the meeting was Lieutenant Colonel Enrique P. González (alias “Gonzalito”), who directed the GOU lodge together with Perón, who was not present, but it is highly unlikely that he did not approve what was discussed. The famous "Blue Book" published by the American government in 1946 also mentions this meeting.

The name of Schellenberg's agent present at the meeting is not mentioned in the communication. It could have been Johannes Siegfried Becker (alias “SARGO”), the point man of Operation Bolívar, the Nazi spy structure in South America. It is possible that whoever was present at the meeting was his subordinate, Hans Harnisch, who for some time had maintained fluid contacts with the Argentine military.

Johannes Siegfried Becker (aka "SARGO")

The document is extremely interesting since in essence Ramírez proposes to the Nazi agent an alliance to open a new front in the world war by launching an attack on Brazil in an alleged alliance with Chile and Paraguay. This offer obviously debunks the "principled" theory of neutrality. Argentina followed a false neutrality during the war that was totally contrary to the interests of the country and paid a high price for it.

What is remarkable is that in mid-1943, after the defeats suffered in Russia and North Africa, the Argentine military believed that Germany could still win the war. After this meeting, in September 1943 the military government decided to send a special agent named Osmar Hellmuth on a secret mission to Germany to buy weapons and meet with Schellenberg and other high officials of the Third Reich. At a meeting at the War Ministry, Perón handed Hellmuth his instructions.

The remarkable thing is that by then the Nazis were heading to their unfailing defeat and could not part with even one Luger. In other words, the bet of the Argentine military would inevitably go wrong (as it did). However, negotiations to buy weapons in Germany were only suspended in September 1944, when even to fanatics the end of the Third Reich was evident.

Thanks to the geniuses of Bletchley Park, who deciphered the radio communications coming from Argentina, in November 1943 British intelligence arrested Hellmuth before he reached Europe. During the interrogation he was subjected to, Hellmuth confirmed the purpose of his mission.

In view of this situation, the Allied pressure on Argentina increased, culminating in the severance of relations with Germany in early 1944. The pro-Nazi wing of the army viewed Ramírez's decision as treason. Perón took advantage of the situation to get rid of both Ramírez and González, his rival within the GOU. Potash talks about all this in his book "The Army and Politics in Argentina 1928-1945". As the American historian Stanley Hilton has shown, the Brazilian government took the possibility of an Argentine military aggression very seriously, long before the coup of June 4, 1943.

I transcribe below the communications in German and my translation into Spanish via http://www.deepl.com (any correction is welcome).

AKTEN ZUR DEUTSCHEN AUSWÄRTIGEN POLITIK 1918-1945, Band VI 1. May bis 30. September 1943, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht Gottingen 1979

First Document

p. 221, Enviado Meynen (Buenos Aires) al Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, Buenos Aires, 2 julio 1943, Geheime Reichssache Nur als Verschlußsache zu behandeln. Druck USA auf Abbruch anhält. Argentinische Regierung möchte Abbruch vermeiden, zumindest verzögern. Denkt an Ausweg durch Bildung Blocks mit Chile Paraguay. Dabei wieder auftaucht Gedankenaustausch Waffenlieferung unsererseits. Bin unterrichtet über diesbezügliche… (Gr. verst.) Abwehr Anweisung Botschaft. Empfehle hierzu gegebenenfalls möglichst ganz geheim mindestens Einleitung Verhandlungen.Ferner anscheinend Erwägung Möglichkeit “freundschaftlichen” Abbruchs, wobei im Vordergrund Fragen, ob Sicherstellung argentinischen Handels- verkehrs durch uns möglich. Empfehle, jeden Fühler in dieser Richtung ablehnend zu beantworten, da sonst Gefahr, daß hiesige Regierung angesichts Zwangslage hierzu greift. [Note: Nach einer Aufzeichnung Brenners vom 12. Juli (39/27 797) bat Ribbentrop Steengracht, sich “ablehnend zu der Frage zu verhalten, ob evtl. ein freundschaftlicher Abbruch der Beziehungen zwischen Deutschland und Argentinien unter Sicherstellung des argentinischen Handelsverkehrs zu erwägen sei”]

Translation

Secret and confidential. Pressure from the US for the government to break [diplomatic relations with the Third Reich] continues. The Argentine government wants to avoid the rupture, at least delay it. Think of an exit by forming a block with Chile and Paraguay. In the process, an exchange of ideas arises; armaments on our part. I am informed about this… (Gr. Verst.) Defense instructions message. If possible, I recommend starting negotiations as secretly as possible. Furthermore, apparently, the possibility of a “friendly” break is being considered, with emphasis on whether we can guarantee Argentine commercial traffic. It is recommended to respond negatively to any suggestion in this direction, otherwise there is a danger that in the face of a difficult situation the local government will act. [Note: According to a recording by Brenner on July 12 (39/27 797), Ribbentrop asked Steengracht to “refuse to answer the question of whether a friendly breakdown in relations between Germany and Argentina would be possible, while considers guaranteeing Argentine trade "]

Second Document

pp. 466-468, Der chef der Sicherheitspolizei und des SD an das Aswärtige Amt. Berlin, 1 septiembre de 1943, Betr.: Stellungnahme des Generals Ramirez bezüglich der Beziehungen zu Deutschland. Im Nachgang zu früher übersandten Meldungen hinsichtlich der Einstellung der neuen argentinischen Regierung zu Deutschland wird in der Anlage die Abschrift eines Berichtes unseres Dienstes in Buenos Aires übermittelt, der eine zwischen General Ramirez und dessen engsten Mitarbeitern einerseits und unserem Mittelsmann andererseits stattgefundene Besprechung zum Gegenstand hat. Der Sitzungsbericht beweist eindeutig, wie stark der argentinische Regierungschef eine engere Anlehnung an Deutschland sucht. Zwischenzeitlich wurde aus Buenos Aires bekannt, daß der deutsche Geschäftsträger Meynen ebenfalls von dem Inhalt der stattgefundenen Besprechung in Kenntnis gesetzt wurde. Schellenberg, SS Oberführer//

[Anlage] BUENOS AIRES, den 1. Juli 1943. Betr.: Besprechung mit General Ramirez. Am 28. 6. 1943 abends fand eine Besprechung statt, an der außer unserem Mittelsmann folgende Personen teilnahmen: Oberstleutnant Gonzalez, Chef der Präsidentialkanzlei; Hauptmann Filippi, Adjutant und Schwiegersohn von Ramirez; Major Bernard, Privat sekretär des Kriegsministers.

Einleitend erklärte Oberstleutnant Gonzalez, daß es der Wunsch des Präsidenten Ramirez sei, der deutschen Reichsregierung ein klares Bild von der augenblicklichen Lage Argentiniens zu geben. Man habe davon Abstand genommen, dies über die deutsche Botschaft zu tun, da es unmöglich sei, einerseits die Übermittlung verschlüsselter Telegramme zu verbieten, andererseits aber die Botschaft um die Unterrichtung ihrer Regierung zu bitten. Auf den Einwand unseres Mittelsmannes, daß er ebenfalls über keinerlei telegrafische Verbindung verfüge, erwiderte Gonzalez, daß man die für Berlin bestimmten Nachrichten mit einem eigenen Schlüssel über die argentinische Botschaft in Berlin geben könne. Gonzalez betonte nochmals, daß es der Wunsch der argentinischen Regierung sei, die freundschaftlichen Beziehungen zu den Achsenmächten aufrecht zu erhalten. Man wende sich an die deutsche Regierung, damit diese und die übrigen Regierungen des Dreimächtepakts über die durchaus schwierige Lage Argentiniens unterrichtet seien. Am 27.6. sei der USA-Botschafter Armour beim Präsidenten gewesen und habe ihm den Termin vom 15. August genannt, bis zu dem Argentinien die diplomatischen Beziehungen zu den Achsenmächten abgebrochen haben müsse, wenn es nicht die üblen Folgen (graves consecuencias) auf sich nehmen wolle. Die durch Armour bisher nur mündlich überbrachte Forderung seiner Regierung, auf die jedoch zweifellos eine entsprechende schriftliche Mitteilung folgen würde, sei durchaus in Form eines Ultimatums gestellt worden. Auf die zweimal von Armour an Ramirez gestellte Frage, ob er wisse, was unter „üblen Folgen” zu verstehen sei, habe er geant- wortet: „Tengo que entenderlo” (Ich muß es ja verstehen).

Am Nachmittag des gleichen Tages sei auch der brasilianische Botschafter Alves beim Präsidenten erschienen und habe ihm die gleiche Forderung im Namen der brasilianischen Regierung überbracht. Die Brasilianer würden mit „desagrado” (Mißfallen) die Vorgänge in Argentinien beobachten. Argentinien wisse, daß die Nichterfüllung der Forderungen den Krieg mit Brasilien bedeute. Brasilien habe bereits heute 25000 Mann an der argentinischen Grenze konzentriert. Darunter befänden sich 4 Tankbrigaden. Auf den brasilianischen Flugplätzen längs der argentinischen Grenze stän- den 500 Flugzeuge, u. a. auch 25-50 schwere Bomber, bereit. Sämtliche Truppen seien bereits bestens kriegsmäßig ausgerüstet. Wenn auch nicht anzunehmen sei, daß die Vereinigten Staaten offiziell an der Seite Brasiliens gegen Argentinien in den Krieg gehen werden, so sei doch sicher, daß die USA den Brasilianern alle nur erdenkliche materielle und finanzielle Hilfe gewähren würden. Im Gegensatz zu Brasilien stehe Argentinien vollkommen ungerüstet da.

Es verfüge nicht über die notwendigsten Waffen. Zu den wenigen vorhandenen Geschützen fehle die Munition. Die argentinischen Muntionsfabriken seien nicht in der Lage, Granaten herzustellen, da ihnen die erforderlichen Rohstoffe, wie z. B. Trotyl fehlen. Da Argentinien weder die Formel noch die Apparate besäße, um Flugzeugbenzin herzustellen, könnten die argentinischen Flieger nicht höher als 5000 m fliegen. Es sei aber nicht nur bezüglich der Aufrüstung seitens der früheren Regierungen viel gesündigt worden, sondern auch auf außenpolitischem Gebiet habe man eine vollkommen falsche Taktik angewandt. Man habe es leider nicht fertig gebracht, rechtzeitig einen südamerikanischen Staatenblock zu schaffen, der sich gegen Brasilien und damit gegen die USA zur Wehr setzen könnte. Man begrüße deshalb die mit Paraguay getroffenen Abmachungen. Inzwischen sei auch mit Chile ein ähnliches Abkommen getroffen worden. Im Falle eines Krieges mit Brasilien hoffe man, auf die Hilfe Paraguays, Chiles, Boliviens und evtl. Perus rechnen zu können. So sei die Lage Argentiniens. Was könne nun Deutschland bzw. die Achse für Hilfe im Falles eines Krieges gewähren. Sei Deutschland in der Lage, die Überwachung der argentinischen Küste durch 25 bis 30 U-Boote zu übernehmen. Sei es möglich, daß Deutschland 800 bis 1000 Flugzeuge liefert, daß es Argentinien mit den erforderlichen Rohstoffen zur Herstellung von Munition versorgt. Wäre es bereit, die Formel und Apparate zur Herstel- lung von Flugzeugbenzin zur Verfügung zu stellen. Sei Japan in der Lage, den Schutz der chilenischen Küste zu übernehmen? Nach Beendigung der Darstellung durch Oberstleutnant Gonzalez erschien der Präsident General Ramirez. Er betonte, daß es nicht sein Wunsch sei, die Beziehungen zur Achse abzubrechen, daß aber der Druck seitens der USA und Brasiliens ungeheuer stark sei. Er erklärte, daß ihm der Ton, mit dem der nordamerikanische Botschafter seine Forderungen vorgetragen hatte, das Blut hätte kochen lassen, daß er sich jedoch als verantwortlicher Leiter des Schicksals der Nation habe beherrschen müssen. Was ihm der brasilianische Botschafter erzählt habe, hätte nichts mit Amerikanismus und noch weniger mit Lateinamerikanismus zu tun.

Die Abmachungen mit Paraguay seien sehr wertvoll, da dadurch eine breite Front geschaffen sei, die evtl. bis Peru verlängert werden könnte. Im Osten müßte Argentinien sich selbst schützen, westlich müßten die Chilenen den Schutz übernehmen. Vielleicht würde es ein Krieg „del habla espanol” gegen „el habla portugues” werden. Sie würden weniger die USA direkt fürchten, da diese auf die anderen lateinamerikanischen Länder Rücksicht nehmen müßten. Selbstverständlich besage dies nicht, daß die Vereinigten Staaten Brasilien alle nur mögliche Hilfe angedeihen lassen würden.

Den Krieg jedoch mit eigenen Mitteln zu führen, sei vollkommen ausgeschlossen. Vor allem müsse Argentinien den Krieg aus der Luft fürchten, da es nicht über die notwendige Flak verfüge. Man könne sich überhaupt nicht ausdenken, was es z. B. bedeuten würde, wenn eine 3-Millionen-Stadt wie Buenos Aires bombardiert würde, ohne in der Lage zu sein, sich zu verteidigen. Er sei zwar überzeugt, daß der Krieg endlich einmal den in Argentinien fehlenden Patriotismus erwecken würde und daß man Argentinien nicht wiedererkennen würde, aber damit allein könne kein Krieg geführt werden.

Abschließend stellte Ramirez ebenfalls die Frage: „Kann die Achse helfen?” Ohne auf die Fragestellung einzugehen, versicherte unser Mittelsmann, daß er versuchen werde, der deutschen Reichsregierung eine Schilderung der stattgefundenen Besprechungen zu geben. Er selbst könne nur raten, alles zu tun, um zunächst einmal eine Verlängerung des Termins über den 15. August hinaus zu bekommen. Er wies darauf hin, daß die Festsetzung des Termins möglicherweise mit der beabsichtigten Invasion des europäischen Festlandes in Zusammenhang stehen könnte und daß man sich auf alle Fälle vorher den Abbruch der Beziehungen sichern wolle, da nach einem mißglückten Invasionsversuch kaum noch Druck auf Argentinien ausgeübt werden könne. Ramirez betrachtete die Lage als außerordentlich schwierig und hielt es für fast ausgeschlossen, eine Verlängerung des Termins durchzusetzen. Unser Mittelsmann wurde für die nächsten Tage zu einem Essen zu wurde für die nächsten Tage zu einem Essen zu Ramirez geladen..[Nota al pie: Siehe dazu auch das Telegramm des Reichsicherheitshauptamtes an das Auswärtige Amt vom 2. August (507/235 292-93; jetziger Fundort siehe Anm. 1); danach habe es Ramirez bereits dreimal abgelehnt, ein Dekret über den Abbruch der Beziehungen Argentiniens zu den Achsenmächten zu unterzeichnen]

Translation:

The head of the Security Police (Sicherheitspolizei) and the SD to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Berlin, September 1, 1943, Re: Declaration of General Ramírez on relations with Germany. Subject: Statement by General Ramírez on relations with Germany. As a follow-up to previous communications on the attitude of the new Argentine government towards Germany, a copy of a report from our office in Buenos Aires on a meeting between General Ramírez and his closest collaborators on the one hand and our agent on the other is sent the hand. The meeting report clearly shows how strongly the Argentine head of government seeks to strengthen ties with Germany. Meanwhile, from Buenos Aires it has been learned that the German representative Meynen was also informed of the content of the meeting. Signed: Schellenberg, SS Oberführer.

[Annex] BUENOS AIRES, July 1, 1943. Re: Discussion with General Ramírez. On the night of June 28, 1943, a meeting was held in which, in addition to our agent, the following people participated: Lieutenant Colonel González, head of the Presidential Chancellery; Captain Filippi, Ramírez's assistant and son-in-law; Major Bernard, Private Secretary to the Minister of War. In his introduction, Lieutenant Colonel González stated that it was President Ramírez's wish to give the German government a clear picture of the current situation in Argentina. He said that the German embassy had refrained from doing so, since on the one hand it was impossible to prohibit the transmission of encrypted telegrams and on the other to ask the embassy to inform the government of it. Faced with the objection of our agent that he also had no telegraphic connection, González replied that messages destined for Berlin could be sent with a separate password through the Argentine embassy in Berlin. González reiterated that the Argentine government wanted to maintain friendly relations with the Axis powers. He asked the German government to inform the other governments of the Tripartite Pact about the difficult situation in Argentina. On June 27, the United States ambassador, Armor, visited the president and informed him that on August 15, Argentina had to break its diplomatic relations with the Axis powers if it did not want to suffer serious consequences (“serious consequences”). The demand of the US government, which until now had only been transmitted verbally by Armor, but which would undoubtedly be followed by a written communication, was certainly made in the form of an ultimatum. When Armor asked Ramírez twice if he knew what "grave consequences" means, he replied, "I have to understand" (verbatim).

In the afternoon of the same day, the Brazilian ambassador Alves also appeared before the president and delivered the same demand on behalf of the Brazilian government. Brazilians observe with "displeasure" (disgust) the events that occurred in Argentina. Argentina must know that failure to comply with the demands means a war with Brazil. Brazil has already concentrated 25,000 men on the Argentine border. Among them were 4 tank brigades. At the Brazilian aerodromes along the border with Argentina, 500 aircraft are ready, including 25-50 heavy bombers. All troops are already well equipped for war. Even if the United States is not supposed to officially go to war with Argentina on Brazil's side, it is certain that the United States will provide Brazilians with all conceivable material and financial aid. Unlike Brazil, Argentina is completely unarmed.

[Argentina] does not have the most necessary weapons. It lacks ammunition for the few existing weapons. Argentine munitions factories cannot produce grenades because they lack the necessary raw materials, such as trotyl. Since Argentina does not have the formula or the equipment to produce aviation fuel, Argentine airplanes cannot fly more than 5,000 meters. Previous governments had not only sinned a great deal in terms of weaponry, they had also used completely wrong tactics in the field of foreign policy. Unfortunately, it was not possible to create a South American bloc in time to defend itself against Brazil and therefore the United States. Therefore, they are pleased with the agreements reached with Paraguay. A similar agreement has also been reached with Chile. In the event of a war with Brazil, it is hoped to be able to count on the help of Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia and possibly Peru. This is the situation in Argentina. What could Germany or the Axis grant as aid in the event of war? Germany could take over the surveillance of the Argentine coast with 25 to 30 submarines. Germany may supply 800 to 1,000 aircraft, supplying Argentina with the raw materials necessary for the production of ammunition. Would you be willing to provide the formula and equipment for the production of aviation fuel? Can Japan take over the protection of the Chilean coast? After Lieutenant Colonel González finished his presentation, President General Ramírez appeared. He stressed that it was not his desire to break relations with the Axis, but rather that the pressure from the United States and Brazil was enormous. He explained that the tone with which the American ambassador had presented his demands had made his blood boil, but that he had had to control himself as the leader responsible for the destiny of the nation. What the Brazilian ambassador had told him had nothing to do with Americanism and less with Latin Americanism.

The agreements with Paraguay are very valuable because they create a broad front that could possibly extend into Peru. In the East, Argentina would have to protect itself, in the West the Chileans should take charge of the defense. Perhaps it would become a war "of the Spanish language" against "the Portuguese language." They would fear the US less directly, because the US would have to take the rest of the Latin American countries into account. Of course, this does not mean that the United States would give Brazil all the help possible. But making war with your own means is completely out of the question. Argentina, above all, had to fear war from the air, because it did not have the necessary antiaircraft batteries. It is impossible to imagine what it would mean, for example, if a city of three million inhabitants like Buenos Aires was bombed without being able to defend itself. He was convinced that the war would eventually awaken a lack of patriotism in Argentina and that Argentina would not be recognized, but this alone would not allow for war.

Finally, Ramirez also asked the question: “Can the Axis help us? Without answering the question, our agent assured him that he would try to give the German government a description of the meetings that took place. He himself could only guess that he would do everything possible to get an extension of the ultimatum beyond August 15. He pointed out that the fixing of the date might possibly be connected with the intended invasion of the European mainland and that in any case they would want to ensure that relations were broken off beforehand, since after an unsuccessful invasion attempt, pressure on Argentina could hardly be exerted. Ramirez regarded the situation as extremely difficult and considered it almost impossible to push through an extension of the deadline. Our mediator was invited to a dinner at Ramirez's house for the next few days… [Footnote: See also the telegram of August 2 from the Reich Security Main Office to the Foreign Office (507/235 292-93; for the present location , see Note 1); after that, Ramirez had already refused three times to sign a decree terminating Argentina’s relations with the Axis Powers.]

Finally, Ramírez also asked the question: “Can the Axis help us? Without answering the question, our agent assured that he would try to give the German government a description of the meetings that took place. Ramirez could only suggest that he would do everything possible to obtain an extension of the ultimatum beyond August 15. He pointed out that the date setting could possibly be related to the planned invasion of the European continent and that in any case, [the Allies] would want to ensure that relations are broken beforehand, as after a failed invasion attempt, Pressure could hardly be exerted on Argentina. Ramírez considered the situation extremely difficult and deemed it almost impossible to press for an extension of the deadline. Our agent was invited to a dinner at Ramírez's house in the next few days… [Footnote: See also the August 2 telegram from the Reich Central Security Office to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (507/235 292-93 ; for the present location, see note 1); after that, Ramírez refused three times to sign a decree to sever Argentina's diplomatic relations with the Axis powers.]

Originally published in EL Blog de Emilio Ocampo.

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The entrepreneur who does not risks his own possessions is not an entrepreneur

THE CATO - One of the most repeated phenomena in recent history is the discovery of things that are already invented, such as the "new man", "the new journalism" or "the entrepreneurial state".

The recently published book The Myth of the Entrepreneurial State, co-authored by Deirdre McCloskey and Alberto Mingardi, reveals the fallacy of the discovery of the entrepreneurial state by Italian-American economist Mariana Mazzucato.

The successful author is an advisor to the United Nations, to the president of the OECD, to governments such as the Scottish and Italian, to the European Commission, to NASA; she has received all the awards; she has four honorary degrees, and a resume that makes the morning star pale.

And yet, in her most famous book, Mazzucato discovers, again, the squaring of the circle. That is why the work of Mingardi and McCloskey is so important, as they remember how outdated this idea of ​​a State is that, acting as an entrepreneur, benefits everyone and is efficient.

However, the occurrence that rulers should be successful industrialists dates back to the inspiring aristocrat of utopian socialism, Claude-Henri de Rouvroy, Comte de Saint-Simon. In his Catechism of Industrialists (1823-24), Saint-Simon argued that the industrialists were the ones who should take the reins of the country since they are the most interested in maintaining tranquility, in the public economy, in limiting arbitrariness, and they are the most efficient administrators.

What seemed intolerable to him is that an essentially industrial nation is run by those who are not productive. It is not Mazzucato's proposal, it is the opposite, but it is from this seed that the fashion of the entrepreneurial state arises.

In the mid-nineteenth century, after the teacher died, Saint-Simonians like Michel Chevalier defended the free market and the company as a means to increase the power of the State. A rich country that pays high taxes will allow the strengthening of the State.

In this way, the government will be able to undertake, as an entrepreneur, large infrastructures. Not surprisingly, it was Chevalier who, in 1860, signed, together with Richard Cobden, the free trade agreement between France and England.

Chevalier participated in the creation of the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal, and had the idea of ​​building the trans-Mediterranean railway. He was a worthy disciple of his teacher, Saint-Simon, who had already raised the union of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, through a canal.

As Mingardi and McCloskey recall, it is from John Maynard Keynes that, after two world wars and a global economic depression, the need for the State to stimulate demand and gain prominence in the market is called into question.

But if we agree with Mazzucato and his many followers, and concede that investors, as Thaler explains, act dominated by biases; if we accept that society is childish and immature; If it is true that people do not see beyond our noses and we need to depend on someone to help us, why do we have to believe that government ministers are not going to act dominated by biases, they are not going to be childish and immature and go to look long term?

Above all, if we analyze the political decisions of our own Government, not in this year 2020, but for several decades, it cannot be said that they are the best leaders to guide anyone. What is observed is, rather, blind loyalty to the party over the interest of the voters, pathological short-termism, extreme superficiality and a lot of empty gesture.

This reflection comes to the case after reading María Vega who, in yesterday's article by her, in line with the ideas of Mariana Mazzucato, pointed out the lack of experience of the Spanish political class in the business world. Marcos de Quinto and a few others could be excluded. Indeed, the entrepreneurial role of the State is not without its dangers, because it cannot occur.

An entrepreneur, by definition, as Nassim Taleb always remembers, is someone who risks his skin, loses his money, gambles what is his. The bad results of business experiments by the state are not paid by the cause of the mess, neither in money, nor in votes. There is always a culprit outside the government's management that allows these holes to be covered. Mazzucato doesn't risk her money as Enel's advisor either: the gurus know how to get out unscathed.

But Mariana Mazzucato is not the exception, she is the most successful orthodox economist, and more so in these times. As McCloskey and Mingardi recalled, after catastrophes we must expect a growth in the role of the State.

Fear, economic weakness, and in the case of the pandemic, the unexpected and information confusion, are all factors that make anyone's knees tremble and follow the one who tells us that he will save us.

And there is Pedro Sánchez, who in all the media claims the victory of having brought the vaccine, an arrival that makes us all happy, but which is the work of the European Union.

If the president of Spain were Espinete, the European Union would have distributed it in our country as well. Another falsehood spread by social networks is that it is free: European Union funds are provided by citizens of the European Union.

As we remember Carlos Rodríguez Braun, Luis Daniel Ávila and I are all at the Treasury, darling, a book that will be released on January 20, the government propaganda machine deceives us into believing that we pay little and for our own good.

Of course, the arrival of the vaccine is very good news and I am optimistic. I think that little by little we will recover our pulse and that the sun always comes out after the storm. What we find when we regain consciousness, that is something else. Happy New Year to everyone.

This article was originally published in El Español (Spain) on December 29, 2020.

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The energy, in electoral times

CLARÍN - Like its three Kirchnerist predecessors, the current government has a clear preference for rate freezes and intervention in the prices of deregulated products, staying true to its populist and interventionist precepts.

The government of the Frente de Todos clings to transitory measures because they provide it with a fictitious and circumstantial political comfort and is excited that they can improve its electoral performance. This transience has a deadline, October 2021, in which "anything goes". Of course, regardless of the serious consequences that the country will have the day after, win or lose the midterm elections.

The discretionary management of energy rates and prices has an interesting analogy with that used by the current administration in the health system in the face of the COVID 19 pandemic; It is endless, it worsens services, wreaks havoc on the economy and therefore on the quality of life of the population

Guillermo Nielsen's displacement from the “virtual” presidency of YPF would have been idle if the Government's intention to add the company to the electoral plan had not been mediated, transforming it into a de facto regulator of fuel prices, into a profit promoter provincial and in a government propaganda broadcaster.

Now, once again, the Government clings to short-termism, it is interested in today, in pulling and then we will see when that "later" is imminent, even if it does the impossible so that it does not happen before October.

Although the consequences are well known after the frustrating twelve-year energy experience of Kirchnerism applying a similar policy, a good part of the citizenry seems to have forgotten them after the improvements introduced by the Cambiemos government.

The sacrifice that the inevitable tariff honesty applied by the previous administration meant to society and the immense political cost it paid, were in vain. The substantial improvement of services, the reduction of the fiscal deficit from 4 points of GDP to 1.5 produced by the decrease in energy subsidies, the balance in the foreign trade accounts, the environmental improvement introduced by the efficient use of consumption before the price signals of economic tariffs and the huge investments in renewable energies are returning rapidly to the very poor values ​​of the end of 2015.

People had begun to become aware of what it costs to produce energy and were agreeing to pay its cost as in any country in the world and not do it compulsively via subsidies for what they do not use.

Until 2002 there was no energy subsidy, there was no shortage of electricity, and gas was exported. Rates were the lowest in the region and private investment flowed into the sector. The State intervened in the segment of regulated gas and electricity services through the Regulatory Entities, and concentrated on collecting stable taxes respecting the laws that govern the sector, thus generating a favorable climate for private investment.

In turn, the non-regulated segment, that is, with free prices, such as the production of electricity, gas, oil and their derivatives, was managed under market rules within the current legal framework and international reference values.

But, with the return of Kirchnerism in its recharged K4 version on the eve of the elections, paralyzing practices for the sector such as indefinite rate freezing, intervention in unregulated prices and breaking of contracts return.

The aftermath of this deja vu is already manifesting. The capitalism of friends returns, the statizing fantasies, the demonization of the concession companies, the regasification ships, the discretion in subsidies and the debt forgiveness.

Meanwhile, investment has come to a standstill in a dynamic industry that requires a constant flow of funds. Gas production fell to historic values, prompting a new state assistance plan for companies unable to produce at the frozen price of demand, thus increasing the pressure of energy subsidies that in 2020 reached USD 8,000 million.

Paradoxically, what this new subsidy will cost us indirectly will be much more onerous than paying the full rate, but they will not notice it in the short term and this is what the Government is interested in before the elections. Yes, the Economy is going to notice it given the lack of foreign exchange to import gas, the quantity and price of which will be much higher than the slightly estimated.

The volumes of LNG, gas by ship, to be imported this winter will increase due to the fact that production will be lower than expected due to the delays in the implementation of the gas plan and due to the reduction in the supply of gas from Bolivia as its production falls. As for the original price, naively calculated based on the low international pandemic values of about $ 3 per million BTU, I don't think it will be available this winter for less than $ 10.

Recently in Korea, up to $ 20 has been paid. So this year the country will need a quantity of foreign currency for energy, which we have and do not produce, of such magnitude that not even the unusual price of commodities in the countryside will compensate. While we continue to enjoy the fiction of "cheap" rates and prices, it cannot last long.

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The merits, the rich, the living and the fools

LA NACIÓN - "In a neighborhood of rich men, without weapons or grudges, it is only money and not love". That was the legend that the police found when they managed to enter the bank in the town of San Isidro that suffered, in its safe deposit boxes, what was called “the robbery of the century”, a general robbery of which this month fifteen years.

This is how President Alberto Fernández seems to be, without arms or grudges in a government of the rich, and not precisely because of his love affairs; at least according to his statements not long ago regarding the true robbery of the century.

A government of the rich that governs for the rich, who are themselves. They are the "rich men" who do not bother Juan Grabois or Luis D'Elía, those who have money that they do not hate.

The author of the phrase "this with Néstor did not happen", famous for so repeated in the channels to which the former head of Cabinet of the viceregal marriage went, this time he was charged with the dirty work.

The first task on that wish list is impunity for all those accused of corruption, for which it should not save on expenses, including - if possible - the displacement or neutralization of the Supreme Court justices that they themselves later appointed. of having displaced the members of the previous one with a stroke of the pen.

The task cannot be accomplished in any way, subtly or silently, for example. The hatred of the leaders demands, in addition to revenge against enemies, the humiliation of those who once deserted from their ranks. That is why the President must grossly and ostensibly contradict each and every one of the public statements with which he had recently censured the main actions of the government from which he had just emerged. One day the memorandum with Iran would become a solution for Justice; later it turned out that prosecutor Alberto Nisman had committed suicide; on another occasion, the union member Hugo Moyano would become an exemplary leader who unfairly almost no one recognizes; Again, the city where he lived at ease for years in his most expensive neighborhood would shame him because of its opulence, and, as always, the culprits would be the media, for which shortly before he had made a veritable rally to sentence that her former boss's actions were deplorable.

The denial must be crude, unscrupulous, without leaving a way out or a doubt that allows saving the honor of the word. That is the style of Kirchnerism. It could hardly be ignored by whoever had seen it from within.

In a story entitled “El illustrious love”, Manuel Mujica Lainez fantasizes the story of a single woman, underestimated even by her family, who had never left her home, but earned the respect of all by crying inconsolably in the middle of the funeral of the Viceroy Melo, whom he did not know.

The head of the Executive Branch imagines that he will obtain the indulgence of the campers for crying over the fate of the vice president, whom he does know. And this with the forgiveness of Pedro Melo of Portugal, who made a good government in the viceroyalty of Río de la Plata, since in addition to his efforts to secure the borders, he was one of those who promoted the paving of Buenos Aires, where even today he is buried. Has the opulence of the city then begun? With opulence and all, one day the plague arrived (Covid-19, in this case) and, with it, the opportunity to strengthen the presidential image. Or at least that was the dream.

But it occurred to someone that, along with the freedom of the usual suspects, it was necessary to promote the freedom of thousands of detainees for the most diverse causes, including crimes against the physical and sexual integrity of people. In this way, the shame would be complete and the anger, capital. In which ears was the noise of the pans loudest?

In politics, whoever acts overreacts. And that's how the expropriation of a grain company was also ordered. Who could not imagine that the silent majority would not see in those actions the advantage of their own confinement? There was no national date that did not summon citizens to the streets to ask for a little dignity.

"I was wrong, I thought they were going to go out and celebrate," the President excused himself when he revoked his own measure, as if that were an argument to promote an expropriation. But the people had indeed come out to celebrate; to celebrate the autonomy of their will against the fraudulent exploitation of the confinement.

And about the end of a black year, the negotiation with death. The exploitation of a massive funeral in the Government House, the uncontrolled and crowded crowd in the least suitable place for such a convocation and the absurd spectacle of a president wielding a megaphone to give predictably useless directives.

Then, abortion, a law that not even the former president wanted to be sanctioned when she governed (that is, when she governed as such), but that the current president wanted to hang like a green cock and show that he was winning progressivism to his mentors, among other reasons that will probably never be seen. All at Christmas time and shortly after receiving help from the Vatican for the negotiations with the IMF. A model of gratitude that will undoubtedly be recognized by the president even by the smallest of altar boys.

After that, the dark negotiations with doubtful vaccines, the accelerated efforts to prioritize them and the ridiculously epic tone infused to the transport trips of the vials. If those vaccines were to eventually harm the health of a significant number of people, it will not be the former eastern countries' closest friends in government who will be exposed.

Today it seems that an eternity has passed since the candidate Alberto Fernández was able to attract a part of the middle class to his campaign with the smiling motto: "We will return to be better." And yes, there are people who can always improve on certain habits. And since the habit does not make the monk, this time no one is going to throw bags in a convent.

The vice-presidential directive is today asphyxiating the private health system. When the middle class depends even on the government for its life, the stage will be almost ready to run to the supporting actors and represent the Venezuelan tragedy.

Meanwhile, in an effort to demonstrate his seventies orthodoxy, the President spoke out against merit. Microphone in hand, before an audience, he proclaimed that he did not believe that merit was what makes us grow, "because the dumbest of the rich has many more possibilities than the most intelligent of the poor," he sentenced.

Is it so? If this is true, the example does not seem to be Lázaro Báez, who quickly progressed from his position as a bank employee to having 1,412 properties, largely thanks to his friendship with Néstor Kirchner, the president “with whom this did not happen”, as Mr. Alberto Fernández himself said when it had not yet occurred to him that they could return to be better.

However, he must have had some foundation to launch that apothegm. Credit will have to be given. For something he became president.

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When the curse of ignorance defeated the blessing of exporting food

INFOBAE - It is remarkable that someone has spoken of the “curse of exporting food”. If anyone is asked who gets the cheapest lettuce, would they answer the one who produces it or who buys it? No one would hesitate to say that to the one who produces it. Since in the country that exports a food, its producer chooses between selling it to local consumers or abroad; the internal price must be similar to the one he would charge by placing it at the border or port at the disposal of buyers from other countries. These, in turn, must take them to their own consumers; which will add the marketing, logistics and freight expenses. Therefore, those who buy them in the gondolas of importers will have to pay all those costs that are not paid by those who buy them in the exporting country. Conclusion, it is a blessing to be able to produce food; because that lowers the price of them.

The question is: why are there countries that import their food, their people can pay more for it and still have sufficient access to it, while in others that produce it, there is part of their population that does not have enough to eat, such as in Argentina?

Let's go back to the example of one person. Only a minority is dedicated to producing food; but that does not mean that the rest cannot buy them. That will depend on whether, by doing something else, they can generate the income to acquire them. The same thing happens with countries. Those that prosper have a good diet, whether they produce food or not; since what is relevant is to produce the resources so that its inhabitants can buy them.

In Argentina, some economists and politicians have made us believe that we are rich because we have many natural resources. Nothing more wrong. An apple on a tree can satisfy hunger; but only if someone takes the trouble to harvest it. If not, it will never feed anyone. From the beginning of this century, the utopia arose that the Argentines would be saved with “Dead Cow”. However, in the period of greatest increase in the price of oil in history, not only the interventionist policies of Kirchnerism kept it very dead, but they made sure that Argentina was one of the two countries in the world where, without mediating a war , the production of hydrocarbons fell.

It is no coincidence that the other was Venezuela. A country that is settled on a sea of ​​oil; but fuel and energy are scarce for its inhabitants, because nobody wants to invest there. Conclusion, that "wealth" they have is not such. Only investment and work is what makes a resource in wealth and well-being for citizens when they are made available. That is true for Venezuela, Argentina and any other country in the world.

An Argentine or a foreigner invests because he thinks that he has found a need that he can cover by organizing the production of a good or service at a price that allows him to cover costs and earn money; but that, at the same time, whoever is going to sue him can pay. Besides, of all this risk, he assumes the one to see how to handle it well. So there are many things that can fail and make you lose his money and effort. In Argentina, he has to add to it that politicians intend to spend insatiably squeezing them with taxes that they must add to their prices and beg that the consumer pay them or they will go bankrupt. According to the World Bank, the country is in 21st place, out of 190, among those that most taxes are charged to companies. Not only that, they make a report where they take a typical SME with good profit margins on sales and see what would happen to them in each country if it paid all taxes and fees. Argentina is one of the two places where it would lose money and some are scandalized by the high informality of the sector. If all paid taxes, most would go bankrupt.

If you still think that investing here is extremely attractive, keep in mind that most government officials consider that they know how to handle work or business much better than their fellow citizens. For example, they can make you lose money by freezing you or controlling your prices; because it suits them politically. Or force you to sell cheaper to some and not letting you sell to others. For example, the true owner of the export currencies is who produced the good or service that was sold abroad and generated them. However, the Central Bank has decided that this man is obliged to sell them to him at a much lower price than others would pay them, causing him to lose part of his income. Now, if a public body can order you what to do with something, that is no longer yours; which overwhelms the property rights. They have even prohibited importing supplies; which forces to buy locally a more expensive and worse one, making the final products also so. The list is long and, in fact, already in 2019 there were more than 67,000 regulations and, since it took office, this government has dedicated itself to increasing them by dozens per week.

Without investment there is no productive employment or the possibility of generating the necessary resources, not only so that everyone has access to enough food, but also to pay other expenses, among them the permanent waste of our politicians and officials. The true Argentine curse is the widespread belief that we are "rich" and we just have to redistribute so much abundance well by choosing miraculous governments that multiply the "loaves and weights." While the countries that prosper and are successful in eradicating hunger, they are clear that this can only be achieved with effort and investment and that these become more lavish the more the State respects the rights of those who work and invest, the freedom of markets and , in short, legal security. Argentina can be one of these countries, only if it urgently faces the structural reforms necessary for investments to arrive and we generate more opportunities for progress for all Argentines.

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