Ambito Financiero - Mauricio Macri's government ends his term by taking several measures that he clearly does not share. The main of these measures is regarding exchange control policies. After making hard criticisms of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's exchange control policies, the Cambiemos government ends up taking the same measure. How did you get to that situation? Basically the imbalance in the exchange market became unsustainable. What does this mean? That the demand for dollars is high and the supply very weak. This imbalance generates pressures on the exchange rate. However, it is not the only variable that influences. It also happens that the demand for pesos falls and when this happens, the pesos that are not demanded are exchanged for goods or other currencies (in our case, mainly the dollar). On the other hand, it can also influence the value of the dollar in the world. The truth is that the demand for dollars is high in Argentina and there are not so many dollars to meet that demand and when that happens, the BCRA must intervene selling reserves if it wants to maintain the value of the exchange rate. The appetite for the dollar is strong and, in Argentina, it is understandable. It is not that there is a love for the dollar, but that there is panic to the Peso. Panic to the peso because in Argentina, since the BCRA (Argentina's Central Bank) was created, thirteen zeros were removed from the national currency. Panic to the peso because Argentina traded five different currencies. Panic to the peso because anyone who was born between 1950 and 1955 bought his first toy with Peso National Currency, he invited his first drink with Pesos Ley, he married with Argentine Peso, bought clothes for his son with Australes and gives gifts to his grandson with the current Peso Argentino. With this track-record, panic is created towards the peso, because a currency that constantly loses its value (remember, we lost thirteen zeros from 1900 to 2019) flows into a kind of “Pavlov reflex” to protect itself, and one way is to buy dollars. Specifically, the demand for pesos falls and the demand for dollars increases. Measures of the central bank in recent months, the foreign exchange market was "artificially balanced" because the Treasury sold $60 million a day, because seasonally they entered agro-dollars and because the carry-trade had returned somewhat. As soon as these variables were yielding, the supply of dollars fell without being able to meet the demand for dollars, with the aggravating factor that the demand for pesos continued to fall. Thus came the first exchange control where a ceiling of $10,000 was established for individuals. However, the BCRA continued to lose reserves because people kept buying dollars. Finally, after the October elections, the stocks deepened. Now, you can only get $200 if the operation is done through a bank account, or $100 if the purchase of dollars is in cash. It is more than clear that the measure is taken in a context of urgency by the delicate economic situation. In addition, if the priority is to take care of the reserves, with the exchange rate it prevents people from buying dollars by giving air to the reserves of the Central Bank. But, this does not mean that it has no consequences. The exchange controls are not good news for the country. In the first place, because if the dollars cannot leave, then they will not enter either. It is an instinctive matter, nobody is going to enter a place from which he cannot leave. On the other hand, the exchange control policies are nothing more than a maximum price to the dollar and as any maximum price has economic consequences. The true value of the dollar will be closer to the dollar counted with liquidation than the official dollar. The deeper the exchange control, the greater the trend of the gap between the alternative dollars and the official one. And if there is something that demonstrates the history of Argentina is that the exchange market dances to the beat of the alternative dollar. Whenever there was exchange control, when the situation became unsustainable, the official dollar ended up losing purchase power converging towards the value of the dollar counted with liquidation or the parallel dollar. Since experience shows this, the expectation is that sooner or later a devaluation will come. If Argentina does not go the way of facing structural reforms to build trust, so the economy grows again and can have a normal exchange market, then they will continue taking measures that address the urgent and not the important; In other words, patches. If the line to be followed is this, then it is probably convenient to split the exchange rate instead of an exchange control, where at least people have the freedom to buy dollars, at a higher price, but continue with the freedom of being able to protect yourself from a currency (the peso) that all you can expect is lose value. Because, in short, what exchange controls are looking for is not that dollars are not demanded, but to force us to use pesos, the currency that loses value. By Ivan Cachanosky

Aldo Abram, economista y director de Libertad y Progreso, en el programa de Eduardo Feinmann transmitido por A24. "Alberto Fernández tiene que hacer las reformas estructurales si no quiere un desplome de la economía el año que viene" dice el economista. "Si no recuperas la confianza de argentinos y extranjeros para que dejen de retirar sus ahorros del sistema, tendremos otra crisis" agrega. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljrZDuFsn0c&feature=youtu.be

Francis Fukuyama pronosticó que a partir del 9 de noviembre de 1989 se terminaba el comunismo y aflorarían los mercados libres y el liberalismo. Esto fue un marxismo al revés, nada en la vida humana es inexorable, no hay leyes históricas imbatibles. Todo depende de la que seamos capaces de contribuir diariamente los humanos para el respeto recíproco. Tal como ha consignado Paul Johnson “Una de las lecciones de la historia que uno debe aprender, a pesar de que es muy dolorosa, es que ninguna civilización puede tomarse por segura. Su permanencia nunca puede considerarse dada, siempre hay una edad oscura esperando a la vuelta de la esquina.” En este caso, el espíritu totalitario se ha desplazado en tres vertientes: un supuesto feminismo que en verdad constituye una ofensa para la mujer, no solo por los humillantes cupos en medios académicos, laborales y políticos que subestima sus capacidades para competir sino que introduce ideas contrarias a la propiedad, al derecho y a la vida a contracorriente del feminismo original expuesto tan bien por mujeres de la talla de Mary Woolstonecraft. Por otro lado, el totalitarismo se ha puesto de manifiesto vía un falso ambientalismo que estimula la “tragedia de los comunes” a través de la figura del “subjetivismo plural”. Y por medio de la tercera vertiente ratifica sus ímpetus estatistas alimentando un Leviatán desbocado que se traduce en presiones fiscales asfixiantes, deudas astronómicas y manipulaciones monetarias emprobrecedoras. El derrumbe del Muro de la Vergüenza significó el desmoronamiento del bloque soviético pero de ningún modo la desaparición del socialismo. Como es sabido,  la infame pared de 155 kilómetros de largo y cuatro metros de alto se inauguró el 13 de agosto de 1961 con la idea de evitar la permanente fuga desde Alemania oriental a la occidental, aunque, a pesar de ese fenomenal obstáculo la cruzaron algunos valientes dejando atrás cientos de muertos y decenas de miles de arrestos. Es del caso recordar muy especialmente un hecho sumamente conmovedor y es que el 25 de diciembre del año del mencionado derrumbe, Leonard Bernstein dirigió en Berlín una combinación de orquestas célebres para ejecutar la Novena Sinfonía de Beethoven con la letra original de la parte coral escrita por Friedrich Schiller titulada “Oda a la Libertad” (“An Die Freiheit”) que al ser censurada se convirtió en “Oda a la Alegría” (“An Die Freude”).  

Agustín Etchebarne, economista y director de Libertad y Progreso, en el programa de Eduardo Vilouta transmitido por A24. "Si se quieren mantener las inversiones cómo Vaca Muerta, se tendrán que permitir los precios en dolares" dice el economista "El que invierte dólares quiere dólares". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okVzNwZ5CfI&feature=youtu.be